The 2019 Oscars are coming up fast, and with that in mind, I decided it’d be a good time to share my thoughts on some of the nominees. More specifically, I’m gonna look at some of the major nominees, pick out which one I think stands the best chance of winning, which one I think deserves to win, and which film inside or outside the nominees truly earned that distinction. Let’s kick things off with some of the music categories.
Best Original Song
Who will win: This year is a pretty solid one when it comes to the Best Original Song category. With a lot of stiff competition, there’s not a bad one in the whole batch here (give or take Jennifer Hudson’s milquetoast power ballad “I’ll Fight”). That being said, there’s not much debate here when it comes to who’s gonna win. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s “Shallow” is a chart-topping smash, a critical darling, and (without giving too much away) likely to be the only major love A Star Is Born gets from the Academy this year.
Who should win: I have nothing against “Shallow.” It’s sweet, well-written, and really reflects the different styles of the two characters. But I’m not even sure I’d say it’s the best song in A Star Is Born. It’d be great to see Kendrick Lamar and SZA take home an award for Black Panther‘s “All the Stars,” but I’m left with the same problem: it’s not even one of my favorite songs on that soundtrack. So, despite my love for Kendrick, I’m giving this one to “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” the titular Ballad of Buster Scruggs. It’s a timeless, transcendent overture that gave me dramatically overblown expectations for a B-grade Coen Brothers movie.
Who should really win: There are so many missed opportunities in this category. The Golden Globes had Dolly Parton and Annie Lennox duking it out for their beautiful ballads “Girl in the Movies” and “Requiem for a Private War,” but neither one of them got any recognition from the Oscars. Neither did Sade, who seems to have split the vote between her two stellar soundtrack contributions, A Wrinkle in Time‘s “Flower of the Universe” and Widows‘ “The Big Unknown.” Yeah, you’ve gotta pick one, but it’s fucking Sade! The Widows song is better anyway! Just pick it! Anyway, there’s a few other worth mentioning, like Khalid and Normani’s “Love Lies” (which was from the Love, Simon soundtrack, believe it or not), Celine Dion’s “Ashes,” the wonderful Quincy Jones/Chaka Khan/Mark Ronson collab “Keep Reachin’,” and The Coup’s “OYAHYTT.” But the song that truly deserves it is actually another song from a film that did get nominated: Black Panther. If there’s one song I wish could take home this award, it’s “King’s Dead,” if partially to see Future do his “la di da di da, slob on me knob” bit in front of Christian Bale.
Best Original Score
Who will win: This is as crowded a field as any this year, with Beale Street, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther seeming to be duking it out for likeliest winner. BlacKkKlansman has a great score, but probably not a best-of-2018 score. Beale Street is easy to love, but I’m actually gonna go out on a limb here and say that Black Panther, being unlikely to score in any of the major categories this year, could take home this one. It also has a pretty damn good score, with composer Ludwig Göransson deftly fusing a cinematic sound with hip-hop and myriad African influences to create an unforgettable Afrofuturistic soundscape.
Who should win: Admittedly, it’s tempting to say that Black Panther deserves this one, too. But if anyone’s getting the short end of the stick in this race, it’s Isle of Dogs, a film with a breathtaking soundtrack whose only real argument against winning in this field is the fact that Alexandre Desplat already won last year. And admittedly, I would love to see Göransson get some recognition. So sure, Black Panther.
Who should really win: While all the aforementioned soundtracks are perfectly good, there’s a lot of serious snubs in the category this year. The amount of iconic, groundbreaking soundtracks that didn’t get a shot at Oscar gold are almost too many to name: Merrill Garbus for Sorry to Bother You, Colin Stetson for Hereditary, Anna Meredith for Eighth Grade, Trent Reznor for Mid90s, Michael Giacchino for Incredibles 2, Ben Salisbury and Geoff Barrow for Annihilation. It’d honestly be fantastic to see Annihilation take this one, but I’ve gotta give it up for Jóhann Jóhannsson, the late great composer who gave us the best work of his illustrious career with Mandy, a film that deserves all the recognition it can get.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who will win: This race seems, for all intents and purposes, to be split between If Beale Street Could Talk and BlacKkKlansman. Any of the other nominees has a halfway-decent chance of pulling it out from other them, but those two stand on top. And to me, it seems like If Beale Street Could Talk has slightly better odds in this race. We’ll have a better idea of how good a shot it has once the WGA winners come out, but Barry Jenkins does seem to be in the Academy’s good graces more so than the other nominees here.
Who should win: As much as I’d love to heap all the awards praise on Jenkins’ rhapsodic Beale Street, I recently saw BlacKkKlansman for the third time (having been unsure how I felt about it the first two times) and I came to a realization: the script for that movie is incredible. You’re talking about a race between Spike Lee and Barry Jenkins, two men with a particular gift for adapting an existing source to their own style, but after decades of Academy neglect, Spike really went all out with this one.
Who should really win: In terms of people who deserved a nomination in this category, I would’ve liked to see some love for Paddington 2 and The Death of Stalin (with maybe Widows thrown in there). But honestly, this one’s all BlacKkKlansman. Seriously, see this movie with subtitles and watch the magic happen.
Best Original Screenplay
Who will win: This one seems poised to go to The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest off-the-wall masterstroke featuring some deliciously dramatic Victorian absurdism. Granted, it’s a somewhat contentious film, as the go-to consolation prize for films beloved in the Academy with no real shot at Best Picture, but The Favourite (which does have a shot at BP, by the way) takes the cake.
Who should win: The Favourite. Next question.
Who should really win: Okay, there’s a couple excellent scripts I think deserve a nod in this category, in particular Eighth Grade and Sorry to Bother You, but I gotta be honest. There’s only one winner here, and it’s The Favourite.
Best Director
Who will win: Among a crowded field of excellent directorial turns (give or take a haphazardly vehement Adam McKay), this one seems poised to go to Alfonso Cuarón for Roma. Full of intense, understated majesty, Roma is the kind of movie groups like the Academy just reflexively heap awards upon. Cuarón’s been at it for a while, and Roma is about to be his most decorated film yet.
Who should win: I don’t want to be unkind to Roma, because it’s a really great movie. I think. Even after seeing it, I’m really not quite sure how I feel about it. Looking at the rest of the field, there’s a lot of strong contenders. I still think BlacKkKlansman has some glaring flaws, but it’s one of Spike’s most refined turns yet. Cold War is great for pretty much the same reasons Roma is great, and just like Roma, I’m really not sure how I feel about it. I think this one’s gotta go to The Favourite for me, though. Lanthimos’ innovative innovative use of editing, design, and camera work elevates it to the stuff of genius.
Who should really win: So many people got left out of this category. No love for Paul Schrader, even though First Reformed was decidedly better directed than it was written. No love for Panos Cosmatos, who continues to be lightyears beyond the rest of the game with Mandy. Not even any love for Barry Jenkins, who poured his heart and soul into every frame of If Beale Street Could Talk. We also didn’t get a nod for Ryan Coogler, whose auteur style elevated Black Panther above standard Marvel fare; Lynne Ramsay, who brought her uncompromising, intense vision to You Were Never Really Here; Steve McQueen, who just absolutely fucking crushed it with Widows; or any of the stellar first-timers like John Krasinski, Bo Burnham (who bested Cuarón at the DGAs), Ari Aster, and my personal favorite, Boots Riley. I’m trying to be realistic about the fact that Sorry to Bother You never stood much of a chance of taking home Oscar gold, but if it deserved love in any category, Best Director is the one. Every fame of this film is done with pure passion, the rebel spirit that inspires all the most groundbreaking films.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: This one’s a lock for Mahershala Ali. Since taking home the Golden Globe in this category, it’s been pretty well-established that he was destined for the Oscar for his calculated role in Green Book. His only semblance of competition for it is Sam Elliott, who could finally take home a prize for A Star Is Born. But as much as Sam deserves an Oscar, his role in A Star Is Born is emblematic of everything wrong with the film, and the Oscars can’t give every award to a living legend who just happens to not have one (we’ll get to that in a minute).
Who should win: This one’s a bit of a dry crop this year, but out of all the nominees, I particularly enjoyed Richard E. Grant‘s role in Can You Ever Forgive Me? It’s a great film that probably deserves a little more recognition, and Grant’s performance is reflective of what’s so great about it: what could have easily been a caricature of an old, gay alcoholic is imbued with stunning depth through the hands of Avenue Q playwright Jeff Whitty and Enough Said director Nicole Holofcener (weird, right?).
Who should really win: Frankly, the only two people who really earned their spot in this category are Grant and maybe Adam Driver. Other than that, there’s a lot of people I would’ve liked to see get some love, including the late Anton Yelchin for Thoroughbreds, Brian Tyree Henry for If Beale Street Could Talk, Cedric the Entertainer for First Reformed (one of the year’s most pleasant surprises), Michael B. Jordan’s mystifying turn in Black Panther, and Hugh Grant’s role in Paddington 2. Still, one role clearly stands out to me as the frontrunner for this category, and it’s Daniel Kaluuya for his jaw-dropping performance in Widows. After only seeing him in two major roles, I’m convinced Kaluuya might be the greatest living actor. Watch the rapping scene and you’ll see what I mean.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Regina King.
Who should win: Regina King.
Who should really win: Regina King. (Although I would’ve really liked to see a nomination for Tessa Thompson in Sorry to Bother You and/or Jennifer Jason Leigh in Annihilation).
Best Actor
Who will win: At the end of the day, this one’s a battle between Christian Bale (Vice) and Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody). Both gave transformative, out-of-the-box performances as their respective historical figures, but all things being equal, the Academy’s likely to tip their hand in favor of Rami Malek. He sung, he danced, he stepped outside of his robotic typecast, and he played a beloved rock star. What more could the Academy ask for?
Who should win: Maybe it wasn’t fair to exclude Bradley Cooper or Willem Dafoe from the conversation up above, but I honestly feel like Christian Bale and Rami Malek went above and beyond the rest of the herd this year, and I’d be perfectly satisfied with either of them winning.
Who should really win: Like I said, the other folks in this category didn’t especially jump out at me, but there’s a few others I think deserved a shot. Few actors could’ve complemented the insane world of Boots Riley’s Sorry to Bother You better than Lakeith Stanfield. Joaquin Phoenix and Ethan Hawke’s solemn, embattled performances is You Were Never Really Here and First Reformed (respectively) were a sight to behold, and John Cho went above and beyond in Searching. If there’s one role I would’ve particularly delighted in seeing nominated, it’s Tom Hardy’s gonzo performance in Venom, which might genuinely be the best of his career. But speaking of off-the-wall turns, nothing stuck out to me more than Nicolas Cage in Mandy. Cage is as seasoned a veteran as anyone, and he synthesizes the many facets of his storied career into one otherworldly journey into the depths of madness.
Best Actress
Who will win: Those of you who’ve been out of the loop might be taken aback by this, but the experts all agree: this one’s going to The Wife. She’s got the SAG, the Globe, the Critic’s Choice Award, the Satellite, the Hollywood Film Award, and she’s going to have the Oscar. After such a long and storied career, this is really more of a conciliatory award for Glenn Close, but that’s not to belittle her performance in The Wife, which is excellent as always.
Who should win: That being said, she is among a pretty competitive category, and between Melissa McCarthy, Lady Gaga, Yalitza Aparicio, and Olivia Colman, it’s hard to say this should really be Glenn Close’s year. Colman gives a serious starmaking performance as the mad Queen Anne in The Favourite, and it was clear she was deserving of the Oscar from the moment the film came out.
Who should really win: Here, it’s tempting to also say Colman, who just absolutely rips shit in The Favourite. A few others are at least worthy of consideration, though: there’s Elsie Fisher’s amazing debut in Eighth Grade, which puts her in the conversation for future Hollywood royalty. There’s Viola Davis’ stern, chilling turn in Widows, another great entry in a near-pitch-perfect career. There’s Kiki Layne, the unsung hero of If Beale Street Could Talk. But really, there’s one person who truly deserves this award, and it’s Toni Collette. We’ve known Collette to be one of Hollywood’s serious talents for decades now, but Hereditary elevates her to a whole other level. I’m tempted to say it’s one of the best horror performances I’ve ever seen.
Best Picture
Who will win: It’s an uneasy Best Picture crop this year. After Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book‘s twin upsets at the Golden Globes, it became clear that the best film may not reign supreme this year, and after scooping up top honors from the AFI, National Board of Review, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and (most ominously) the Producers’ Guild, it seemed like Green Book might have it in the bag. But consider this: The Oscars are different. The film that blazes through the other award shows often falls short at the Oscars. The Golden Globes are a historically poor indicator for who will win the Oscar (even though they name two winners). The Producers’ Guild tends to have the best shot, but they also get it wrong a lot, especially in the past several years. No, after weighing all the options, I think this one’s most likely to go to Roma. It’s a favorite among pollsters at the moment, and the kind of movie that’s you can’t really picture not charming Academy voters. It’s by no means set in stone, but that’s what I’m gonna say.
Who should win: As those of you who read my best-of-2018 list know, The Favourite is my favorite out of the nominees. With ten nominations, it certainly seems to have a strong contingent of fans among the Academy, but there’s not enough there to say it has a solid chance at Best Picture here. However, there have been whisperings of a potential dark horse this year, a film that seems to have an actual shot at winning in what would be one of the most exhilarating upsets in recent awards history: Black Panther. It’s just a rumor at this point, but people with a degree of insider knowledge say that Black Panther is being talked about as one of the most serious candidates for this awards (“Black Panther or Green Book“). If this were to actually happen, it would obviously be incredible, but maybe Black Panther deserves it, too. It wasn’t my absolute favorite movie of 2018, but giving something Best Picture sends a certain message, and giving it to a black political superhero blockbuster like Black Panther sends about a dozen exciting messages at once.
Who should really win: This is a tough one, honestly. The easy answer would seem to be saying that Sorry to Bother You, my favorite film of the year, deserves to take home Best Picture, but while I think it would be great to see it nominated, I don’t know. As I said, it sends a certain message to give a film Best Picture, and Sorry to Bother You is the kind of movie that might actually be cheapened my taking home that award. Put another way, the worst thing about Moonlight is that it won Best Picture. There’s some others I’d like to have seen nominated, including Eighth Grade, Paddington 2, and Blindspotting (which was so robbed this awards season that it’s even gotten robbed in my article about things that got robbed), but at the end of the day, I think the movie I’d most like to see win is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. If any movie is likely to stand out as the most influential, important, and well-liked movie of 2018, it’s that one. Also, it would send all the messages that giving it to Black Panther would send plus the added clout of it being an animated movie.
